Hope is dangerous.

Mangled expectations are often worse than no expectations at all. You can’t be disappointed in how something turned out if you didn’t expect much in the first place.

According to SportsClubStats.com, Austin FC entered their Wednesday night match against D.C. United at Q2 Stadium with a paltry 5.3% chance of reaching the MLS postseason. Only Jim Carrey’s character in Dumb and Dumber could feel optimistic about those odds.

And yet, when unlikely-starter Will Bruin headed a perfectly-chipped Sebastian Driussi cross by D.C. United goalkeeper Alex Bono to give Austin FC an eleventh-minute lead against their visitors from the nation’s capital, at least one Verde fan had to sheepishly grin and say, “You’re telling me there’s a chance.”

Driussi added a goal of his own before halftime, and Matt Hedges – a 54th-minute substitute for Leo Vaisanen whom coach Josh Wolff said in his press conference left the match due to heat exhaustion – made it three in the 64th minute.

Unlike Austin FC’s previous home match against the LA Galaxy, their multi-goal lead was safe from a demoralizing comeback on Wednesday. Austin FC’s 3-0 victory over D.C. United ended a dreadful ten-match winless streak where the Verde and Black were both poor and (a bit) unlucky. Wolff’s team were better against D.C. – there’s no debate who deserved to win – but should consider themselves fortunate to escape the night with a clean sheet.

D.C. United outshot Austin FC 19 to 13, and 15 of the visitor’s shots were taken from inside the penalty area. Despite those unsightly numbers, Austin FC produced more expected goals (xG) than Wayne Rooney’s team – 1.89 to 1.45 – per Fotmob.com.

No one will sweat the details as it was Austin FC’s first clean sheet since another 3-0 home win over the Houston Dynamo on June 24th. “It was great,” Austin FC goalkeeper Brad Stuver said post-match about the satisfaction of keeping the opposition off the scoreboard.

Stuver also praised the efforts of his teammates: “Whether it was starting from our frontline all the way to the back line making clearances, guys were bodying guys in the box making sure there were no free headers.”

A surprising midfield double pivot of Alex Ring and Jhojan Valencia defined the tenacity that characterized Austin FC’s performance on Wednesday. “They’re battlers, they’re grinders, they’re competitive,” Wolff said of the duo in his post-match press conference. “When I think of duelers in the middle of the field I think of Alex, Jhojan, and Owen (Wolff). Pepe (Dani Pereira) has a different skill set. Tonight it wasn’t going to be about that so that’s why Jhojan and Alex played.”

Groans were likely elicited throughout Austin when Austin FC’s starting 11 was released. In a frustrating season, Pereira has been one of Austin FC’s few bright spots, and the decision to sit him from the start of a crucial contest was bold (also bold: starting midfield dueler Owen Wolff at left back).

But there was logic in Wolff’s selection of Ring and Valencia. D.C. United lined up in a narrow 4-4-2 diamond formation and looked to attack centrally and directly. Providing additional support in the center of the field for Austin FC’s two center backs helped nullify a D.C. attack featuring one of the league’s most fearsome attackers, the imposing former Premier League striker Christian Benteke. Per Fotmob.com, Ring and Valencia combined for 16 defensive recoveries.

Victory over D.C. United jumps Austin FC into 10th place in the Western Conference standings – one position and three points below the West’s final playoff spot. FC Dallas are currently residing in that final playoff position and had their Wednesday-night match against the Colorado Rapids postponed due to weather. The rescheduling of that match has yet to be announced.

“We’ll look at them,” Hedges said after the match when asked if Austin FC are going to keep an eye on the standings. “We have to focus on what we need to do. If we don’t get what we need to do done, it’s not going to really matter what the other teams do.”

Hope at your own risk: Austin FC remain in playoff contention with two regular season matches remaining.

Eric McCoy

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