A more bleak scenario couldn’t possibly have been envisioned: Austin FC – winless in their last six matches – are about to take the field against the Portland Timbers at Providence Park. The Timbers’ prior match at their raucous home stadium was a 4-1 demolition of the mighty Seattle Sounders – much stiffer opposition than Josh Wolff’s toothless team.

Oh, and Sebastian Driussi isn’t going to play. Unbeknownst to Austin FC’s fans, their beloved talisman picked up a groin injury at some point between the team’s 2-2 draw with the San Jose Earthquakes the previous weekend and the announcement of the starting eleven to face Portland.

Since Austin FC came into existence, virtually anything good the team has accomplished has prominently featured Driussi. If the team wasn’t playing well in 2023 with Driussi, just how ugly of a performance would they turn in with him sitting on the bench?

The answer was surprising. Wolff – not exactly known for his tactical flexibility – elected to deploy a 3-4-3 formation. Austin FC have rarely deviated from a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 formation (sometimes two central midfielders sit and shield the backline, and other times only one sits, but the basic structure is almost always the same: four defenders, three midfielders, three forwards), so the shift in approach was notable.

And it worked. It took a stoppage-time Will Bruin equalizer for Austin FC to nab a 2-2 draw, but the Verde and Black were the superior team for most of the contest. Austin FC registered 1.2 expected goals (xG) to Portland’s .8 (all stats per fbref.com). It was just the fourth time in ten MLS matches that Austin FC “won” the xG battle over their opposition.

Miraculous as that point in Portland was, Austin FC fared even better on their next trip to the Pacific Northwest eleven days later. The Seattle Sounders couldn’t cope with Austin FC’s 3-4-3 and fell to a 2-1 defeat. A scuffling Gyasi Zardes even put his name on the scoresheet. Another victory followed in Austin FC’s next match against Toronto FC courtesy of Zardes again finding the back of the net – this time just before the final whistle was blown.

In the four league matches since the formation switch, Austin FC have accrued seven points: just two points fewer than the nine they had earned in the nine matches before the change. So the 3-4-3 definitively works, and Wolff will have to figure out a way to accommodate Driussi into the new system when he returns, right? That’s not necessarily the case.

Austin FC’s underlying numbers in MLS matches before and after their formation change don’t suggest the new shape has impacted their overall performances much. The Verde and Black produced an xG differential of -.30 per match before using the 3-4-3 formation and only have a marginally better xG differential of -.10 per match with the 3-4-3 as their primary shape.

An insipid performance playing in a 3-4-3 against the Chicago Fire in a 2-0 U.S. Open Cup defeat this past Wednesday doesn’t help the case for Austin FC sticking with the shape once Driussi’s back. And doesn’t a 3-4-3 system lack a natural spot for a number 10 or even a number 8 – Driussi’s favorite positions to roam the field in?

On paper, a 3-4-3 formation features three center-backs, two wingbacks, two central midfielders, two wingers, and a center forward. So it would seem batty to suggest Wolff should line his team up in a formation that doesn’t play to his best player’s strengths. Except, the wingers in Wolff’s 3-4-3 haven’t been playing like wingers – i.e. on the wing; they’ve been playing tucked inside just behind a center forward. The wingbacks provide the width, and the wingers play more like number 10s than traditional wingers.

A good comparison of how Wolff has the nominal wingers in his system playing is Thomas Tuchel’s Champions League-winning Chelsea team of 2021 (remember when Chelsea were good?). Tuchel also elected to task his wingbacks – the excellent Reece James and Ben Chilwell – with stretching opponents horizontally while “wingers” Mason Mount and Kai Havertz worked magic as twin number 10s underneath Timo Werner.

In Wolff’s 3-4-3, Driussi would likely play a left-sided number 10 role in areas of the field not dissimilar from the ones he’s featured in for most of his Austin FC career. Emiliano Rigoni has been playing as Austin FC’s left-sided number 10 in Driussi’s absence. Take a look at a heat map (via WhoScored.com) of Rigoni’s touches from Austin FC’s match against Portland.

Now look at Driussi’s heat map from Austin FC’s April 22nd match against the Los Angeles Galaxy where he played in his customary left-sided attacking number 8 position.

Both players were able to get on the ball in the inside left channel and centrally on the outskirts of the penalty area. The left-sided winger in Wolff’s 3-4-3 and the left-sided number 8 in his 4-3-3 are essentially playing the same role.

With news from Austin FC’s Friday press conference that center-back Leo Vaisanen will miss at least two months with an LCL tear, Wolff may want to stick with a system that uses three center-backs. Newcomer Aleksandar Radovanovic might not yet be trusted to play alongside just one other center-back, and Alex Ring has looked more comfortable in a back three than he has in a center-back duo. Even though its effectiveness is debatable, the 3-4-3 might be sticking around for a bit.

Also, per Austin FC’s Friday media session, Driussi could be fit enough for a substitution appearance tonight in Houston against the Dynamo. We shouldn’t have to wait long to see how Driussi fits into the 3-4-3 unless Wolff plans on flexing his newfound flexibility again and elects for another formation switch.

Eric McCoy

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