Most observers of Austin FC this season would quickly admit the team has defensive deficiencies. Between back passes to former (not current) teammates and catastrophic own goals, the Verde and Black have made life too easy for the opposition’s attacking ambitions.

What’s frightening – like, realizing the milk carton you just took a swig from has an expiration date from last week, frightening – is that Austin FC might actually be worse defensively than you think.

Only three teams in MLS have allowed more shots per 90 minutes than Austin FC (all stats via fbref.com unless otherwise noted). The 15 shots per 90 that Josh Wolff’s team are conceding are nearly three more per 90 than they conceded last season.

It turns out playing matches without any true center backs on your depth chart, as Austin FC did for their match last Saturday against the Colorado Rapids, isn’t ideal for preventing shots. Who knew? Austin FC let the lowly Rapids fire off 17 efforts at their goal.

Interestingly, despite allowing more shots per 90 minutes in 2023 than in 2022, Austin FC are conceding goals at roughly the same rate. The Verde and Black let in 1.41 goals per 90 in 2022 and are currently allowing 1.40. How are Austin FC letting the opposition take more shots without conceding more goals? The answer is simple: Brad Stuver is a goalkeeping wizard.

A quick way to see how a goalkeeper might be performing is to look at the number of goals he or she has allowed versus the team’s expected goals against metric (xGA). In the 2017/18 English Premier League season, Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United conceded a paltry 28 goals. A cursory analysis of the Red Devils’ season might lead one to think the Special One’s defensive coaching skills were at their stingy best.

Not so fast: a backline featuring Phil Jones playing nearly 2,000 minutes can only be so good. Per understat.com, Manchester United had an xGA of 43.54. United conceded 15 fewer goals than expected based on the shots they allowed their opponents to take. David de Gea, despite the fact he can’t pass a soccer ball more than five yards, was an effectively flailing octopus in goal for United that season and helped mask the fact Mourinho’s team were merely good – not great – defensively.

But sometimes a deeper dive is required to truly understand how well a goalkeeper is playing. As a metric, xG is only assessing certain characteristics of a shot, like where it was taken, what type of pass set up the shot (cross, through ball, etc.), and what body part the shot was taken with, amongst a few other variables. What xG isn’t considering is where a shot actually ended up.

Austin FC have given up seven goals in MLS play this season; their xGA sits at 7.8. By this metric, Stuver is doing really well, if not necessarily mind-meltingly spectacular. However, if we further peel the stats onion and look at the placement of the shots Stuver has faced we can truly see how remarkable he’s been.

Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) measures how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot based on what happened to the shot after it left the shooter’s body. PSxG takes the location, trajectory, and speed of a shot into consideration, and it’s through PSxG that Stuver shines.

MLS teams have pummeled Stuver’s goal with shots worth 9.9 PSxG meaning Stuver has saved Austin FC nearly three goals through five matches. As bad as you think Austin FC have looked defensively in 2023, they would have looked even worse without Stuver. Heading into week six in MLS, no goalkeeper was a more valuable shot-stopper – and it wasn’t even close.

Before this past Saturday’s matches, the MLS goalkeeper who had saved his team the next most goals based on PSxG was the Rapids’ William Yarbrough. Per the PSxG metric, Colorado’s keeper had saved his team 1.9 goals, a full goal fewer than the 2.9 Stuver has saved Austin FC.

Austin FC fans might be having anxiety attacks thinking about the defenders who have suited up for their team, but the revolving door of center backs (center backs of varying experience and skill sets) that have played in front of Stuver this season hasn’t affected him.

“We trust that the guys that are coming in are going to know exactly what their role is and we trust that they’re capable soccer players and they know exactly what’s asked of them,” Stuver said when asked after Austin FC’s match against Colorado if his mindset changes when playing with inexperienced center back partnerships.

Stuver probably has more confidence in Austin FC’s center backs than most though it makes sense he would take the ambiguity of his team’s defensive personnel from week to week in stride. It may seem like it’s been forever established that Stuver is an Almighty stopper of shots, but prior to joining Austin FC, Stuver only featured in nine MLS matches across three seasons with the Columbus Crew and New York City FC.

Viewed through that lens, it’s amazing Stuver is as integral to Austin FC as he is. Now in his thirties, Stuver has made the most of the opportunity he’s been given in Austin. The players in front of him may change, but one thing remains constant: it takes one heck of a shot to beat Brad Stuver.

Eric McCoy

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