Austin FC
Not Totally Pointless: Three Takeaways from Austin FC’s First Two Matches of 2024
Austin FC emerged from Seattle with a 0-0 draw giving them their first point of 2024.
Defying the expectations of sane, rational MLS fans everywhere, Austin FC grabbed a point on the road against the vaunted Seattle Sounders on Saturday night. Was it pretty? Absolutely not, but a point is a point is a point. And after the previous Saturday’s blunders against Minnesota United, it’s a point that most of a Verde persuasion will be pleased with. So that’s two matches played and one point for Austin FC.
Here are three takeaways from the team’s first two games of the 2024 MLS season.
Are Austin FC Embracing Being ‘Bad?’
Anyone who’s followed Austin FC at all since the team began play in 2021 knows one thing about head coach Josh Wolff’s idealized version of soccer: it involves having the ball…lots and lots of the ball. To be clear, this strategy hasn’t always been effective (Austin FC have only had one season that could reasonably be considered ‘good’), but Austin FC had a lot of possession in their first three years of existence. The team ranked in the top ten in possession amongst all MLS teams from 2021 through 2023, each season having well over 50% of the ball in their matches (all stats per fbref.com or fotmob.com).
Through two matches in 2024, Austin FC are only averaging 47% possession (with the obvious caveat that two matches is a very, very small sample size). And if we remove the second half of the Minnesota United match – where Austin FC were desperately trying to make up a one-goal deficit – that possession percentage drops to just 42%.
Austin FC also look to be playing more direct when they do have the ball. In 2023, Wolff’s team attempted 82.7 long passes per 90 minutes. That number is up to 86.5 in 2024. Again, two matches are hardly enough to make definitive statements about a team’s broader tactical approach, but it does seem worth noting that Austin FC have looked different thus far in 2024.
Perhaps Wolff is acknowledging he doesn’t have the roster to play the pristine, possession-oriented soccer of his dreams. Maybe he’s embracing his inner Sean Dyche, prioritizing defensive solidity first, looking to hit teams quickly, and directly when the opportunities present themselves, and setting the fancy passing patterns aside. Or maybe Wolff is simply having his team play more conservatively because Sebastian Driussi is out injured. Time will tell.
Stuuuuuver is Thankfully Still Stuuuuuver
Regarding Austin FC’s solitary point of the 2024 MLS season – it’s important to celebrate the result, not the performance. For 90-plus minutes on Saturday night, the Seattle Sounders comprehensively outplayed Austin FC. Avert your eyes if you’re squeamish: Seattle outshot Austin 23 to 2 and per fbref.com, amassed 1.3 expected goals to Austin’s 0.0 (in other words, the two shots that Austin FC did take in the match were…not good).
For a team to come away with a 0-0 draw from a match where they were so clearly second-best usually means their goalkeeper did some extremely high-level goalkeeping. Thank you, Brad Stuver. Despite Seattle’s 23 shots, Stuver only had to make three saves for his clean sheet at Lumen Field, but those three interventions were critical.
Austin’s favorite goalkeeper faced .71 expected goals on target (xGOT – which measures the probability of a shot resulting in a goal and takes into account where the shot ended up). Even though Seattle opted for quantity over quality with their shooting, against most mortal goalkeepers they probably would have found the back of the net at least once.
Stuver was even better against Minnesota, where he faced 3.01 xGOT and only conceded twice. Through just two matches, Stuver has saved nearly two goals worth of chances based on where the opposition’s shots are landing. If Austin FC are going to have any chance of reaching the postseason in 2024, they will need Stuver’s goalkeeping to continue being of the ‘heroic’ variety.
Rigoni is Unfortunately Still Rigoni
Purchasing a seat in the first few rows of an Austin FC match is hazardous to one’s health. In second-half stoppage time against Seattle, an Alex Ring interception launched the Verde and Black on a rare foray into the attacking third. After Ring and substitute Owen Wolff exchanged passes, the ball fell to Emiliano Rigoni. In a sight that’s become depressingly familiar to Verde fans, the Argentinian Designated Player (DP) promptly fired off a shot from outside the box that troubled spectators far more than it troubled Seattle goalkeeper Andrew Thomas.
Starting the 2024 season with an injured Driussi is woefully suboptimal for Austin FC. Driussi’s absence would be more palatable, however, if the team’s other DP attacker could produce performances remotely resembling his roster designation. Deployed on the right wing for most of his Austin FC career, Rigoni has started and played on the left for the team’s first two matches of the season. The change of scenery hasn’t helped. Rigoni has taken two shots in 2024 and has produced just .2 expected goals (xG) and .2 expected goals assisted (xGA).
If anything, the move to the left flank has made Rigoni an even more anonymous figure in Austin FC’s matches. At least on the right he could cut inside and fire off shots from his preferred left foot. In 2023, Rigoni averaged 21.7 touches in the attacking third per 90 minutes. He’s down to just 15.5 touches per 90 in the attacking third in 2024. Underwhelming since arriving in Austin in 2022, the 2024 version of Rigoni doesn’t appear to be an upgrade.
