Puzzling might be the kindest word to describe Austin FC’s quest to find the right combination of players to ignite their sputtering attack. Frustrating, annoying, and enraging are all family-friendly words Verde fans would likely find more apt.
However, the image of a beleaguered Josh Wolff solemnly staring at a scattered collection of puzzle pieces trying to figure out how on earth they’re supposed to fit together feels like an appropriate metaphor for the current state of Austin FC. So, let’s go with puzzling.
For most of the season’s first four matches, Austin FC were trying to solve the puzzle of a misfiring attack without the most pivotal of pieces: Sebastian Driussi. Clearly still recovering from the hamstring injury that has prevented him from featuring for the majority of the young 2024 season, a diminished Driussi did start on Saturday night in Orlando against Orlando City and played for 70 labored minutes in Austin FC’s 2-0 defeat.
Austin FC were outshot, out-expected goal-ed, and badly outplayed by a previously winless Orlando City team in a display that ranks as the season’s worst. In the case of Driussi, better performances certainly lie ahead, but which forwards should play with him?
Most everyone who predicted Austin FC’s fortunes ahead of the season pointed to the team’s lack of depth – which makes it surprising that the Verde and Black have used so many different combinations of attacking players thus far in 2024. Austin FC have broadly lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, and only in the Seattle Sounders and Philadelphia Union matches did Wolff’s team start with the same four attackers (the 3 and the 1 in the 4-2-3-1: the two wingers and attacking midfielder plus the striker).
Nothing has worked. Including Saturday night’s match in Orlando, Austin FC have been outshot 101 to 32 by their opponents, per fotmob.com. It’s worth noting Wolff’s team were getting some modest bang for their modest buck heading into Saturday night’s contest. In their first four matches, Austin FC produced .11 non-penalty expected goals (xG) per shot, which was tied for ninth amongst MLS teams, per fbref.com. But the respectable quality of the Verde and Black’s shooting can only count for so much when the quantity is so low.
Setting Driussi aside (we know he’s more than capable of firing off a bevy of shots) and looking at the attacking options Wolff has it’s difficult to see where the shots will come from. Fbref.com compares players to their positional peers in leagues of a similar caliber, and Austin FC forwards not named Driussi don’t compare well to their peers in terms of shot volume.
Here are the shots per 90 minutes percentile rankings compared to their positional peers for Austin FC’s non-Driussi attacking players (fbref.com looks at data from the past 365 days):
Gyasi Zardes – 11th
Diego Rubio – 36th
Emiliano Rigoni – 31st
Jader Obrian – 4th
Ethan Finlay – 10th
Obviously, those rankings aren’t good. Midfielders Alex Ring, Dani Pereira, and Owen Wolff – all of whom are probably best suited in deeper, more defensive midfield areas – have been asked to play in advanced positions at various points over the past two seasons. And even when compared to their central midfield peers, no one in this trio delivers the goods when it comes to shots. Here are their shots per 90 minutes percentile rankings compared to their central midfield peers:
Alex Ring – 44th
Dani Pereira – 14th
Owen Wolff – 32nd
It’s difficult to consider the question of which attackers should start alongside Driussi and come to any conclusion aside from: it doesn’t really matter. This team is the antithesis of the famous LMFAO song. One might think starting both pure strikers – Zardes and Rubio – at the same time could help the team’s shooting woes, but when the duo started against St. Louis City they didn’t produce a single shot between them.
Wolff could well be trying to solve an unsolvable puzzle. Sisyphus had an easier task. Regularly outshooting your opponents is almost always going to be one of the crucial keys to success in soccer and other than Driussi Austin FC don’t have players that consistently produce shots. Trying to get adequate production from Austin FC’s attack in 2024 is like trying to solve a 1,000-piece puzzle with 995 pieces.
