He just had to score. Emiliano Rigoni, in an uncharacteristic moment of productivity, flicked in a cross that strikers the world over would classify as ‘tantalizing.’ Gyasi Zardes – he of grand expectations and a mere six goals to his name in the 2023 season – met the cross with his head right on the edge of the six-yard box. And he just had to score. He just had to.

Zardes did not, in fact, score. His headed effort in the 9th minute of Austin FC’s match against the Portland Timbers last Sunday clanged off the post with a smidge of assistance from goalkeeper David Bingham. It was one of several quality first-half chances Austin FC had against the Timbers that failed to cross the goal line.

“The first 30 minutes were ripe with opportunities and you have to take them,” Austin FC head coach Josh Wolff said after the match. The creation of opportunities and the subsequent failures to turn those opportunities into goals have been a source of frustration for Austin FC coaches, players, and fans alike of late.

“The performance against Dallas was good. The performance against New England was good. The performance against Seattle was good. These are small margins,” Wolff lamented, highlighting recent matches Austin FC may have expected more from than just the single point they accrued.

On Wednesday against the New York Red Bulls, Austin FC’s performance wasn’t good. Wolff’s team managed just .3 expected goals (xG) and produced a scant three shots (all stats per fbref.com unless otherwise noted). Fortunately, for those of a Verde persuasion, one of those three measly shots resulted in a goal, and Austin FC left Harrison, New Jersey with a point they probably didn’t deserve.

Eight first-half shots against the Timbers, and Austin FC entered the locker room with absolutely zilch to show for all their sweat and toil. Three days later, their one first-half shot against the Red Bulls allowed them to go into halftime level despite having played some of their worst soccer of the season. This is a strange, mercurial sport.

After the Red Bulls match, Wolff again suggested that Austin FC’s 2023 point total isn’t an accurate reflection of the quality of the team’s performances. Per Phil West’s excellent Verde All Day newsletter, Wolff said: “I think the performances over the last five or six games have been quite solid. We haven’t gotten the points that we probably deserved.”

As anyone who watched the first halves of Austin FC’s last two matches can tell you, good performances are not always synonymous with good results. But is Wolff right? Have Austin FC been snakebitten by the vagaries of a cruel, low-scoring sport that rewards good play in frustratingly (seemingly) random intervals?

Surely, Austin FC fans never want to hear about how their team “overperformed their xG” last season again. The 2022 MLS expected goal differential (xGD) table was a great big wet blanket thrown on top of what was otherwise a fun, exciting run to last season’s Western Conference final. It’s instructive to look back to the halcyon – but maybe not quite as halcyon as they seemed – days of last year when trying to assess what’s gone wrong with the 2023 version of Austin FC, though.

Last season, Austin FC finished second in the Western Conference and had a goal differential of plus 16, which was the second-best goal differential in the conference. Sounds great, right? The Verde and Black’s xGD of minus 1.7 told a different story – that figure was only the eighth-best xGD in the West, and keep in mind only seven teams from each conference qualified for the playoffs last season. Austin FC conceded roughly the same number of goals they would have been expected to based on the quality of chances they allowed: Wolff’s team conceded 49 goals and had an expected goals against (xGA) of 52.7. Where Austin FC really defied the odds was in attack.

Austin FC scored 65 goals (second only to the mighty LAFC in the Western Conference) while producing 50.9 xG. A team overperferforming their xG by roughly 14 goals is significant and isn’t likely to be repeated from one season to the next. In the 2016/17 season across the pond in the English Premier League, Antonio Conte’s Chelsea overperformed their xG by over 23 goals en route to a league title. The next season? Chelsea fell back to earth, only overperformed their xG by a little over two goals, and finished the campaign fifth (stats per Understat).

The plunge back to earth has been swift, but not necessarily harsh for the 2023 version of Austin FC. Wolff’s team currently reside in 12th place in the West with a negative xGD of 3.0 (not far off of their xGD in 2022, it’s worth noting). Their actual goal differential is minus 6 – Austin FC’s performances have been about as bad as their results would suggest.

In recent matches, though, Wolff’s cries of his team deserving more points may have some validity. Post-Leagues Cup, only in their two most-recent matches against Portland and the New York Red Bulls have Austin FC “lost” the xG battle with their opponents (the opening half-hour against the Timbers was great, but unfortunately soccer matches are 90, not 30, minutes long). However, if we dig into the numbers a bit more, we’ll find that Austin FC have only been marginally – not dramatically – unlucky.

First up after Leagues Cup, against St. Louis City, Austin FC “won” on xG 3.2 to 1.7, which is surprising considering the Verde and Black were on the wrong end of a 6-3 scoreline. St. Louis scored in the 22nd minute, and were 3-0 up by the 50th minute. Single-match xG numbers can be misleading, and one reason that’s the case is that game state can have a massive influence on how many chances a team will generate in a match.

A team that goes up big early will often sit back to protect their lead and thus allow their opponents a bevy of chances they otherwise wouldn’t if the scoreline were closer. Up three goals shortly after halftime, St. Louis sat back, only had 37% possession in the second half, and allowed Austin FC to rack up the bulk of their xG on the night (all but .02 of it, according to Sofascore) chasing the match. It’s difficult to say Austin FC deserved anything but a loss from their trip to the Gateway City.

Against FC Dallas, Austin FC conceded a brutal 97th minute winner to Nkosi Tafari in a match that was dead even (.6 to .6) on xG. As unpleasant as it was to watch Wolff’s team huff and puff and only produce .6 xG in attack against Dallas, it’s fair to say they deserved at least a point from the match based on their defensive work.

Four days later versus the Seattle Sounders, Austin FC “won” on xG (1.7 to 1.1) and had a shot that (very likely) crossed the goal line not count as a goal – all MLS fans want this holiday season is goal line technology, Don Garber. Wolff could credibly say his team should have won this match. On the Saturday after cruelly losing a match they easily could have won, Austin FC drew a match 2-2 at the New England Revolution that very much should have been a draw – the xG was 1.1 to 1.0 narrowly in favor of the Verde and Black.

From a stretch of four matches where Austin FC could have reasonably expected to have gotten five points (if you give them draws versus Dallas and New England and a win against Seattle), Wolff’s team notched just a single point. But Austin FC deservedly lost to the Timbers (the xG was 2.1 to 1.7 in Portland’s favor) and grabbed a point they shouldn’t have against the Red Bulls (Austin FC were walloped 1.1 to .3 on xG). So, looking at the six matches after Leagues Cup in totality, Austin FC have gotten two points when five would have been the more accurate reflection of their performances. Add three points to Austin FC’s total of 34, and they’d pull level with 10th-place Minnesota United – still a position below the playoff line.

Unlike football and basketball – high-scoring sports where good performances are rewarded with regular, incremental points being added the scoreboard – soccer, by its low-scoring nature, is more prone to luck (good or bad) wreaking havoc on results. Austin FC got a whole bunch of points they probably shouldn’t have in 2022 but have only gotten slightly fewer points than they’ve deserved in 2023. Regression sure is cold-hearted, isn’t it?

Eric McCoy

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